OPEC MOMR Summary
- World oil demand in 2020 is estimated to decrease by 9.1 mb/d, adjusted lower by around 0.1 mb/d as compared to last month’s assessment.
- The downward revision is mainly to reflect weaker-than-expected data in 2Q20 in a few non-OECD countries, in addition to considering the recent adjustment to global GDP in 2020 from -3.7% in July to -4.0% in August.
- Mainly contributed by the weaker-than-expected data in 2Q20 in a few emerging and developing countries
- Numerous additional challenges facing the global economy: debt-related issues to ongoing US-centred trade- related issues, partially re-emerging geopolitical risks, social instability & unrest in several countries
- The forecast risk for world economy both years is skewed to the downside.
Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report - August 2020
Gold Price Weekly Comment
- Gold price faces pressure due to the rebounding US yield rate and reached $2013.1
Source: TradingView
Bullish Factors:
- Worsening Sino-US relationship
Bearish Factors:
- Physical gold consumption remains weak amid lockdowns
- Rebounding DXY and Yield Rate
NYMEX Copper Future Price--- Descending Channel breakout, predict to consolidate at current level, the previous pre-pandemic high as support level (Blue horizontal line)
Source: TradingView
Catalysts:
- Supply concerns over South American Countries due to COVID-19 & labour conflicts
- Higher copper price incentivizes miners to pursue longer-term projects
Risks:
- Geopolitical tensions between the US and China
- Copper smelting activity at multi-year lows
CFDs on Platinum---Overall uptrend
Weekly Platinum: Price drops to US$922.50/ OZ from US$942.25/ OZ (-2.10%)
Source: TradingView
Catalysts:
- Headline vehicle sales data masks positive platinum automotive demand trends
- 2020 Platinum ETF holdings, up 409 koz since mid-May lows, driven by 238 koz additions in US funds
Comments:
- Improvement in the fundamental side
- Bearish cross in MACD
CFDs on Palladium
Weekly Palladium:Price rises to US$2173.37/ OZ from US$2115.00/ OZ (+2.76%)
Source: TradingView
Catalysts:
- Similar to Platinum
Technical analysis:
- Short-term consolidation
- Slightly contracting Bollinger bands, volatility has been lowering
